Should I start Dylan Sampson or Keaton Mitchell in Week 13 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Start Dylan Sampson

+1.8 projected edge · Standard

Start Dylan Sampson over Keaton Mitchell for Week 13 Standard: 4.8 projected points versus 2.9.

Dylan Sampson: 6.5 FP recent scoring average.
Keaton Mitchell: 3.5 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 8:04 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Dylan Sampson

RB · CLEStats & schedule

4.8FF projected

↓ -0.8 vs ESPN

vs CIN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Keaton Mitchell

RB · LACStats & schedule

2.9FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

at TB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dylan Sampson

FF projection: 4.8 FP -0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.6 FP
Sleeper: 6.5 FP
FantasyPros: 3.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dylan Sampson faces CIN in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.5 fantasy points.

Keaton Mitchell

FF projection: 2.9 FP -0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.4 FP
Sleeper: 3.5 FP
FantasyPros: 3.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Keaton Mitchell faces TB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 3.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Dylan Sampson projects for 4.8 points in standard scoring, 1.8 more than Keaton Mitchell. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 8:04 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dylan Sampson and Keaton Mitchell?

Dylan Sampson holds a 1.8 FP projected edge over Keaton Mitchell. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Dylan Sampson higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dylan Sampson

Dylan Sampson has a 4.8 FP forecast in Standard against CIN. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.5 FP, putting this forecast 1.7 points below that average.

Keaton Mitchell

Keaton Mitchell has a 2.9 FP forecast in Standard at TB. His recorded recent scoring average is 3.5 FP, putting this forecast 0.6 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dylan Sampson	Keaton Mitchell	Projected edge
ESPN	5.6 FP	3.4 FP	Dylan Sampson +2.1
Sleeper	6.5 FP	3.5 FP	Dylan Sampson +3.0
FantasyPros	3.4 FP	3.0 FP	Dylan Sampson +0.4
Boosted Trees	3.4 FP	3.1 FP	Dylan Sampson +0.4

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dylan Sampson: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Keaton Mitchell: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.121.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.0Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 19.2
21.3Expected FP
2
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.7Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 14.1
16.4Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 16.9
16.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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