
Should I start Jackson Hawes or Tanner Koziol? (PPR Week 13 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Tanner Koziol
Week 13 ยท PPR
Tanner Koziol has the higher current FF forecast: 1.4 FP versus 1.3 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Tanner Koziol: 2.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Jackson Hawes: 1.8 FP recent scoring average.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Tanner Koziol
TE ยท JACStats & schedule โบJackson Hawes
- Recent scoring average: 1.8 FP.
- The NE defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 2.5%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.0 targets per game.
Tanner Koziol
- Recent scoring average: 2.6 FP.
Jackson Hawes
- FF projection
- 1.3 FP -0.3vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 1.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.9 FP
Jackson Hawes faces NE in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 1.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.
Tanner Koziol
- FF projection
- 1.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.4 FP
Tanner Koziol faces CHI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 2.6 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Trey McBrideTE ยท ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.9Sleeper 16.2FantasyPros 12.815.1Expected FP - 2
George KittleTE ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.3Sleeper 15.1FantasyPros 11.714.3Expected FP - 3
Harold Fannin Jr.TE ยท CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability ยท Range unavailableMean 12.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.1Sleeper 12.6FantasyPros 12.912.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 13 decisions
Tanner Koziol1.4projected FP
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Blake Whiteheart1.4projected FP
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Jack Endries1.4projected FP
Tanner Koziol1.4projected FP
Keleki Latu1.4projected FP
Trey McBride15.1projected FP
George Kittle14.3projected FP
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Harold Fannin Jr.12.6projected FP
Harold Fannin Jr.12.6projected FP
Isaiah Likely12.4projected FP
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T.J. Hockenson12.1projected FP
T.J. Hockenson12.1projected FP
Tucker Kraft11.6projected FP
Tucker Kraft11.6projected FP
Kyle Pitts Sr.11.2projected FP