
Should I start Charlie Kolar or Noah Gray? (PPR Week 13 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Charlie Kolar
Week 13 ยท PPR
Charlie Kolar has the higher current FF forecast: 4.3 FP versus 3.8 FP. The 0.5-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Charlie Kolar: 4.7 FP recent scoring average.
- Noah Gray: 6.3 FP recent scoring average.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Noah Gray
TE ยท KCStats & schedule โบCharlie Kolar
- Recent scoring average: 4.7 FP.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.3 targets per game.
Noah Gray
- Recent scoring average: 6.3 FP.
- The LAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 1.25%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 3.0 targets per game.
Charlie Kolar
- FF projection
- 4.3 FP +0.1vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 4.2 FP
- Sleeper
- 3.9 FP
- FantasyPros
- 4.5 FP
Charlie Kolar faces TB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 4.7 fantasy points.
Noah Gray
- FF projection
- 3.8 FP +0.7vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 3.1 FP
- Sleeper
- 3.8 FP
- FantasyPros
- 2.8 FP
Noah Gray faces LAR in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Trey McBrideTE ยท ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.9Sleeper 16.2FantasyPros 12.815.1Expected FP - 2
George KittleTE ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.3Sleeper 15.1FantasyPros 11.714.3Expected FP - 3
Harold Fannin Jr.TE ยท CLE vs CINSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability ยท Range unavailableMean 12.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.1Sleeper 11.5FantasyPros 12.912.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 13 decisions
Charlie Kolar4.3projected FP
Oronde Gadsden II5.5projected FP
Charlie Kolar4.3projected FP
Nate Boerkircher4.4projected FP
Charlie Kolar4.3projected FP
Tommy Tremble4.4projected FP
Charlie Kolar4.3projected FP
David Njoku4.8projected FP
Trey McBride15.1projected FP
George Kittle14.3projected FP
George Kittle14.3projected FP
Harold Fannin Jr.12.5projected FP
Harold Fannin Jr.12.5projected FP
Isaiah Likely12.4projected FP
Isaiah Likely12.4projected FP
T.J. Hockenson12.1projected FP
T.J. Hockenson12.1projected FP
Tucker Kraft11.6projected FP
Tucker Kraft11.6projected FP
Kyle Pitts Sr.11.2projected FP