Should I start Dallas Goedert or Ryan Flournoy? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Dallas Goedert

+2.7 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Dallas Goedert over Ryan Flournoy for Week 13 Half-PPR: 8.9 projected points versus 6.2.

Dallas Goedert: 6.7 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 1.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 3:52 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

8.9FF projected

↑ +2.5 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Ryan Flournoy

WR · DALStats & schedule

6.2FF projected

↑ +0.5 vs ESPN

at SEA

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 8.9 FP +2.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.3 FP
Sleeper: 9.5 FP
FantasyPros: 11.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dallas Goedert faces ARI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Ryan Flournoy

FF projection: 6.2 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.6 FP
Sleeper: 6.5 FP
FantasyPros: 6.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Ryan Flournoy faces SEA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 9.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.

Dallas Goedert projects for 8.9 points in half-PPR scoring, 2.7 more than Ryan Flournoy. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 3:52 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Ryan Flournoy?

Dallas Goedert holds a 2.7 FP projected edge over Ryan Flournoy. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Dallas Goedert higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 8.9 FP forecast in Half-PPR at ARI. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.7 FP, putting this forecast 2.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 1.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Ryan Flournoy

Ryan Flournoy has a 6.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR at SEA. His recorded recent scoring average is 9.0 FP, putting this forecast 2.8 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 8.75%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Ryan Flournoy	Projected edge
ESPN	6.3 FP	5.6 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.7
Sleeper	9.5 FP	6.5 FP	Dallas Goedert +3.0
FantasyPros	11.2 FP	6.1 FP	Dallas Goedert +5.1
Boosted Trees	7.9 FP	6.5 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.3

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Ryan Flournoy: Mon 8:15 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.323.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.3Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.7
20.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 16.3
18.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13