Should I start Dallas Goedert or Ladd McConkey? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dallas Goedert

+0.2 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Dallas Goedert over Ladd McConkey for Week 13 Half-PPR: 8.9 projected points versus 8.6.

Ladd McConkey: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Ladd McConkey · Injury report dated Nov 14, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Dallas Goedert: 6.7 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 1.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 1:54 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

8.9FF projected

↑ +2.5 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Ladd McConkey

WR · LACStats & schedule

8.6FF projected

↑ +1.8 vs ESPN

at TB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 8.9 FP +2.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.3 FP
Sleeper: 9.5 FP
FantasyPros: 11.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dallas Goedert faces ARI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Ladd McConkey

FF projection: 8.6 FP +1.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.8 FP
Sleeper: 9.6 FP
FantasyPros: 8.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Ladd McConkey faces TB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 10.6 fantasy points. Ladd McConkey is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Dallas Goedert projects for 8.9 points, 0.2 more than Ladd McConkey.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 1:54 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Ladd McConkey?

Dallas Goedert holds a 0.2 FP projected edge over Ladd McConkey. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Dallas Goedert, while ESPN, Sleeper lean toward Ladd McConkey. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 8.9 FP forecast in Half-PPR at ARI. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.7 FP, putting this forecast 2.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 1.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey has a 8.6 FP forecast in Half-PPR at TB. His recorded recent scoring average is 10.6 FP, putting this forecast 2.0 points below that average. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Ladd McConkey	Projected edge
ESPN	6.3 FP	6.8 FP	Ladd McConkey +0.5
Sleeper	9.5 FP	9.6 FP	Ladd McConkey +0.2
FantasyPros	11.2 FP	8.8 FP	Dallas Goedert +2.4
Boosted Trees	7.9 FP	7.7 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.2

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Ladd McConkey: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your ROS Report ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.623.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.7
20.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 17.6
19.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13