Should I start Dallas Goedert or Josh Downs? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Josh Downs: One source has him at zero while another expects points. Check his game status before relying on this comparison. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Dallas Goedert: 6.7 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 1.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:34 AM ET · Half-PPR

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

8.9FF projected

↑ +2.5 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Josh Downs

WR · KCStats & schedule

6.1FF projected

↓ -0.6 vs ESPN

at LAR

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 8.9 FP +2.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.3 FP
Sleeper: 9.5 FP
FantasyPros: 11.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dallas Goedert faces ARI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Josh Downs

FF projection: 6.1 FP -0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.6 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 9.1 FP

Josh Downs faces LAR in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 5.7 fantasy points.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:34 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Josh Downs?

Availability takes priority over the points comparison. The headline warning above still applies; the supporting forecasts below do not clear an injured player to start.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Dallas Goedert, while ESPN leans toward Josh Downs. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 8.9 FP forecast in Half-PPR at ARI. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.7 FP, putting this forecast 2.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 1.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Josh Downs

Josh Downs has a 6.1 FP forecast in Half-PPR at LAR. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.7 FP, putting this forecast 0.4 points above that average. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Josh Downs	Projected edge
ESPN	6.3 FP	6.6 FP	Josh Downs +0.3
Sleeper	9.5 FP	0.0 FP	Dallas Goedert +9.5
FantasyPros	11.2 FP	9.1 FP	Dallas Goedert +2.1

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Josh Downs: Thu 8:15 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.323.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.3Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.7
20.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 16.3
18.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13