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Week 132026 ยท Half-PPR

WEEK CHECK

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Should I start Case Keenum or J.J. McCarthy in Week 13 (2026, Half-PPR)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Case Keenum: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. J.J. McCarthy: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Case Keenum ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

J.J. McCarthy ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

  • Case Keenum: 6.25% matchup reduction against JAC.
  • J.J. McCarthy: 8.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR

Why this pick?

Case Keenum

FF projection
0.0 FP
Sleeper
0.0 FP
FantasyPros
0.0 FP

Case Keenum faces JAC in Week 13. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%. NOT_STARTING

J.J. McCarthy

FF projection
13.9 FP -0.1vs ESPN
ESPN
14.0 FP
Sleeper
12.7 FP
FantasyPros
17.0 FP
Boosted Trees
16.1 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

J.J. McCarthy faces SF in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 8.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%. J.J. McCarthy is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Case Keenum: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. J.J. McCarthy: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 11:30 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
17.727.1
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB ยท BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.7Expected FP
  2. 2
    Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.9Expected FP
  3. 3
    Drake MayeQB ยท NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full QB rankings โ†—

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