Should I start Dawson Knox or Drew Sample in Week 12 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dawson Knox

+0.7 projected edge · Standard

Start Dawson Knox over Drew Sample for Week 12 Standard: 2.2 projected points versus 1.5.

Dawson Knox: 2.1 FP recent scoring average.
Dawson Knox: 1.25% matchup lift against KC.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:03 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Dawson Knox

TE · BUFStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

vs KC

Thu 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Drew Sample

TE · CINStats & schedule

1.5FF projected

↑ +0.3 vs ESPN

vs NO

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dawson Knox

FF projection: 2.2 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 2.6 FP
Sleeper: 1.8 FP
FantasyPros: 1.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 2.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dawson Knox faces KC in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 2.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Drew Sample

FF projection: 1.5 FP +0.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 1.2 FP
Sleeper: 1.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 2.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Drew Sample faces NO in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 2.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Dawson Knox projects for 2.2 points in standard scoring, 0.7 more than Drew Sample. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:03 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

7.212.2

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 11.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.9Sleeper 12.2FantasyPros 8.3
11.5Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs WASSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 11.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 8.1Sleeper 11.4FantasyPros 10.2
11.1Expected FP
3
Colston LovelandTE · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 7.4Sleeper 7.2FantasyPros 9.4
9.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.