
Should I start Tim Patrick or Tylan Wallace in Week 12 (2026, Half-PPR)?
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Tylan Wallace
+0.6 projected edge ยท Half-PPR
Start Tylan Wallace over Tim Patrick for Week 12 Half-PPR: 0.7 projected points versus 0.2.
- Tylan Wallace: 0.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Tylan Wallace: 5% matchup lift against LV.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Tim Patrick
WR ยท NYJStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Tylan Wallace
- FF projection
- 0.7 FP -0.1vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.8 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.7 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 0.6 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Tylan Wallace faces LV in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 0.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.
Tim Patrick
- FF projection
- 0.2 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.1 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 1.1 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Tim Patrick faces MIA in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
WR. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Ja'Marr ChaseWR ยท CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.8Sleeper 16.1FantasyPros 17.018.5Expected FP - 2
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs PHIThu 4:30 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.0Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 14.617.4Expected FP - 3
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR ยท DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.4Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 16.316.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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