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Week 122026 ยท Half-PPR

WEEK CHECK

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Should I start Jaylen Wright or Ty Johnson in Week 12 (2026, Half-PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Ty Johnson

+0.1 projected edge ยท Half-PPR

Start Ty Johnson over Jaylen Wright for Week 12 Half-PPR: 3.3 projected points versus 3.2.

Jaylen Wright: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Jaylen Wright ยท Injury report dated

  • Ty Johnson: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.
  • Jaylen Wright: 0.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR

Ty Johnson
Why this pick?

Ty Johnson

FF projection
3.3 FP -0.9vs ESPN
ESPN
4.2 FP
Sleeper
4.3 FP
FantasyPros
2.1 FP
Boosted Trees
4.3 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Ty Johnson faces KC in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points.

Jaylen Wright

FF projection
3.2 FP -0.3vs ESPN
ESPN
3.5 FP
Sleeper
3.3 FP
FantasyPros
3.7 FP
Boosted Trees
4.2 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jaylen Wright faces NYJ in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%. Jaylen Wright is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Ty Johnson projects for 3.3 points, 0.1 more than Jaylen Wright.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 7:18 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
16.924.8
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs CHIThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs BUFThu 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.8Expected FP
  3. 3
    Bucky IrvingRB ยท TB vs CARMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.3Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full RB rankings โ†—

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