Should I start Elic Ayomanor or Tez Johnson? (Standard Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Elic Ayomanor

The displayed FF scores are tied. Elic Ayomanor gets the tiebreaker: FF is -0.7 FP versus ESPN, compared with -0.8 for Tez Johnson. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Elic Ayomanor: 3.9 FP recent scoring average.
Elic Ayomanor: 2.5% matchup lift against DAL.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:58 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Elic Ayomanor

WR · TENStats & schedule

3.8FF projected

↓ -0.7 vs ESPN

at DAL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tez Johnson

WR · TBStats & schedule

3.8FF projected

↓ -0.8 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Elic Ayomanor

FF projection: 3.8 FP -0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.5 FP
Sleeper: 4.6 FP
FantasyPros: 3.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Elic Ayomanor faces DAL in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 3.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Tez Johnson

FF projection: 3.8 FP -0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.6 FP
Sleeper: 4.8 FP
FantasyPros: 1.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Tez Johnson faces DET in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 6.1 fantasy points.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:58 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.615.3

FF MEAN

1
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.1Sleeper 14.4FantasyPros 13.8
15.3Expected FP
2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.2Sleeper 13.6FantasyPros 12.6
14.4Expected FP
3
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.6Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 10.8
13.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.