Should I start Demarcus Robinson or Tim Patrick? (Standard Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Demarcus Robinson

+0.8 projected edge · Standard

Start Demarcus Robinson over Tim Patrick for Week 11 Standard: 1.0 projected points versus 0.1.

Demarcus Robinson: 2.2 FP recent scoring average.
Demarcus Robinson: 7.5% matchup reduction against MIN.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:12 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Demarcus Robinson

WR · SFStats & schedule

1.0FF projected

↑ +0.6 vs ESPN

vs MIN

Sun 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tim Patrick

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.1FF projected

at LAC

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

Demarcus Robinson

FF projection: 1.0 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.4 FP
Sleeper: 1.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Demarcus Robinson faces MIN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.

Tim Patrick

FF projection: 0.1 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Tim Patrick faces LAC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.

Demarcus Robinson projects for 1.0 points in standard scoring, 0.8 more than Tim Patrick. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:12 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.615.3

FF MEAN

1
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.1Sleeper 14.4FantasyPros 13.8
15.3Expected FP
2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.2Sleeper 13.6FantasyPros 12.6
14.4Expected FP
3
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.6Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 10.8
13.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.