Should I start Caleb Williams or Drew Lock in Week 11 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Start Caleb Williams

Drew Lock is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Caleb Williams has a scheduled game and projects for 20.9 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Caleb Williams · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 12:17 AM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Drew Lock: His starting role depends on an unresolved quarterback injury. Confirm the starter before kickoff. His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Caleb Williams: 16.3 FP recent scoring average.
Caleb Williams: 2.5% matchup lift against NO.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 2:11 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Caleb Williams

QB · CHIStats & schedule

20.9FF projected

↑ +1.6 vs ESPN

vs NO

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Drew Lock

QB · SEAStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

BYE

Check bye / schedule

Why this pick?

Caleb Williams

FF projection: 20.9 FP +1.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 19.3 FP
Sleeper: 19.9 FP
FantasyPros: 19.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 21.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Caleb Williams faces NO in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 16.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Drew Lock

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Recent scoring average: 12.6 fantasy points. BYE Drew Lock is bye. Check his availability before kickoff.

Drew Lock is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Caleb Williams has a scheduled game and projects for 20.9 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 2:11 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.629.2

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.7Sleeper 29.2FantasyPros 22.9
25.5Expected FP
2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.9Sleeper 23.6FantasyPros 22.5
24.5Expected FP
3
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.6
22.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.