
Should I start Brock Wright or Sam Roush in Week 11 (2026, Standard)?
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Sam Roush
+0.5 projected edge ยท Standard
Start Sam Roush over Brock Wright for Week 11 Standard: 1.2 projected points versus 0.6.
- Sam Roush: 0.8 FP recent scoring average.
- Sam Roush: 2.5% matchup lift against NO.
Forecast updated ยท Standard



Brock Wright
TE ยท DETStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Sam Roush
- FF projection
- 1.2 FP +0.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.6 FP
- FantasyPros
- 1.1 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 2.3 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Sam Roush faces NO in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.
Brock Wright
- FF projection
- 0.6 FP +0.3vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.3 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.0 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 1.6 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Brock Wright faces TB in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Brock BowersTE ยท LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.9Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 9.412.3Expected FP - 2
Trey McBrideTE ยท ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.6Sleeper 9.4FantasyPros 8.69.4Expected FP - 3
Travis KelceTE ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.2Sleeper 9.4FantasyPros 8.28.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 11 decisions
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Elijah Higgins2.7projected FP
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Ben Sinnott1.2projected FP
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Luke Schoonmaker1.1projected FP
Sam Roush1.2projected FP
Nate Adkins1.1projected FP
Brock Bowers12.3projected FP
Trey McBride9.4projected FP
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Travis Kelce8.7projected FP
Travis Kelce8.7projected FP
Colston Loveland7.9projected FP
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George Kittle7.9projected FP
George Kittle7.9projected FP
Dalton Kincaid7.4projected FP
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Isaiah Likely7.2projected FP