
Should I start Brock Purdy or Tommy DeVito in Week 11 (2026, Standard)?
THE FF CALL
Start Brock Purdy
Tommy DeVito is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Brock Purdy has a scheduled game and projects for 14.6 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.
Brock Purdy ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked
- Brock Purdy: 18.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Brock Purdy: 10% matchup reduction against MIN.
Forecast updated ยท Standard



Tommy DeVito
QB ยท NEStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Brock Purdy
- FF projection
- 14.6 FP -2.4vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 17.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 18.3 FP
- FantasyPros
- 13.2 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 17.5 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Brock Purdy faces MIN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 18.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.
Tommy DeVito
- FF projection
- 0.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.0 FP
Recent scoring average: 0.8 fantasy points. BYE
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.7Sleeper 29.2FantasyPros 22.925.5Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.9Sleeper 23.6FantasyPros 22.524.5Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB ยท HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.622.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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