
Should I start Ben Sims or Noah Gray in Week 11 (2026, Standard)?
THE FF CALL
Start Noah Gray
Ben Sims is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Noah Gray has a scheduled game and projects for 2.8 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.
- Noah Gray: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.
- Noah Gray: 5% matchup lift against ARI.
Forecast updated ยท Standard



Ben Sims
TE ยท SEAStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Noah Gray
- FF projection
- 2.8 FP +0.8vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 2.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 3.1 FP
- FantasyPros
- 2.0 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 3.3 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Noah Gray faces ARI in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.
Ben Sims
- FF projection
- 0.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.0 FP
BYE
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Brock BowersTE ยท LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 9.9Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 9.412.3Expected FP - 2
Trey McBrideTE ยท ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 6.6Sleeper 9.4FantasyPros 8.69.4Expected FP - 3
Travis KelceTE ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 8.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 7.2Sleeper 9.4FantasyPros 8.08.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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