
Should I start Adam Randall or Anthony Tyus III? (Standard Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Anthony Tyus III
The displayed FF scores are tied. Anthony Tyus III is the default preference because ESPN has a comparable saved forecast for him and not for Adam Randall. Missing data is not zero, and this coverage fallback is not a statistical edge.
- Anthony Tyus III: 2.8 FP recent scoring average.
- Adam Randall: 10% matchup lift against CAR.
Forecast updated ยท Standard



Adam Randall
RB ยท BALStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Anthony Tyus III
- FF projection
- 0.6 FP +0.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.0 FP
Anthony Tyus III faces BAL in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.8 fantasy points.
Adam Randall
- FF projection
- 0.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.2 FP
- FantasyPros
- 1.0 FP
- Boosted Trees
- -0.7 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Adam Randall faces CAR in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
RB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 19.3FantasyPros 18.421.0Expected FP - 2
James Cook IIIRB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.0Sleeper 17.5FantasyPros 16.618.2Expected FP - 3
Tony PollardRB ยท TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability ยท Range unavailableMean 17.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.1Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 13.617.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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