
Should I start DJ Moore or Ryan Flournoy? (PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: DJ Moore
+0.9 projected edge ยท PPR
Start DJ Moore over Ryan Flournoy for Week 11 PPR: 12.8 projected points versus 11.9.
- DJ Moore: 11.6 FP recent scoring average.
- DJ Moore: 5% matchup reduction against MIA.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Ryan Flournoy
WR ยท DALStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
DJ Moore
- FF projection
- 12.8 FP -0.4vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 13.2 FP
- Sleeper
- 13.4 FP
- FantasyPros
- 13.6 FP
DJ Moore faces MIA in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 11.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.
Ryan Flournoy
- FF projection
- 11.9 FP +2.9vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 9.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 9.8 FP
- FantasyPros
- 12.1 FP
Ryan Flournoy faces TEN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 10.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
WR. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.1Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.524.6Expected FP - 2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.6Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 20.123.0Expected FP - 3
Tee HigginsWR ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 16.020.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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