Should I start Isaiah Likely or Trey McBride? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Trey McBride

+3.2 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Trey McBride over Isaiah Likely for Week 11 Half-PPR: 13.0 projected points versus 9.8.

Trey McBride: 15.9 FP recent scoring average.
Trey McBride: 3.75% matchup lift against KC.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:27 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Trey McBride

TE · ARIStats & schedule

13.0FF projected

↑ +2.8 vs ESPN

at KC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Isaiah Likely

TE · NYGStats & schedule

9.8FF projected

↑ +0.2 vs ESPN

vs JAC

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Trey McBride

FF projection: 13.0 FP +2.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 10.2 FP
Sleeper: 10.8 FP
FantasyPros: 12.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 15.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Trey McBride faces KC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 15.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

Isaiah Likely

FF projection: 9.8 FP +0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.6 FP
Sleeper: 10.4 FP
FantasyPros: 8.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 14.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Isaiah Likely faces JAC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 8.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Trey McBride projects for 13.0 points in half-PPR scoring, 3.2 more than Isaiah Likely. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:27 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

9.115.4

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.9Sleeper 13.4FantasyPros 12.6
15.4Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.2Sleeper 10.8FantasyPros 12.2
13.0Expected FP
3
Travis KelceTE · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.1Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 11.2
10.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.