Should I start Elijah Higgins or John Bates? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Elijah Higgins

+2.3 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Elijah Higgins over John Bates for Week 11 Half-PPR: 3.7 projected points versus 1.4.

Elijah Higgins: 2.4 FP recent scoring average.
Elijah Higgins: 3.75% matchup lift against KC.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:30 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Elijah Higgins

TE · ARIStats & schedule

3.7FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

at KC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

John Bates

TE · WASStats & schedule

1.4FF projected

↑ +0.5 vs ESPN

vs CIN

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Elijah Higgins

FF projection: 3.7 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.1 FP
Sleeper: 4.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Elijah Higgins faces KC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

John Bates

FF projection: 1.4 FP +0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.9 FP
Sleeper: 1.6 FP
FantasyPros: 2.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.6 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

John Bates faces CIN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points.

Elijah Higgins projects for 3.7 points in half-PPR scoring, 2.3 more than John Bates. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:30 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

9.115.4

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs DENSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.9Sleeper 13.4FantasyPros 12.6
15.4Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs KCSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.2Sleeper 10.8FantasyPros 12.2
13.0Expected FP
3
Travis KelceTE · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.1Sleeper 10.3FantasyPros 11.2
10.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.