Should I start Harold Fannin Jr. or Samaje Perine this week? (Standard Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Harold Fannin Jr.

+2.3 projected edge · Standard

Start Harold Fannin Jr. over Samaje Perine for Week 10 Standard: 6.7 projected points versus 4.4.

Harold Fannin Jr.: 10.2 FP recent scoring average.
Harold Fannin Jr.: 6.25% matchup reduction against HOU.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:40 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE · CLEStats & schedule

6.7FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Samaje Perine

RB · CINStats & schedule

4.4FF projected

↓ -0.2 vs ESPN

vs PIT

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Why this pick?

Harold Fannin Jr.

FF projection: 6.7 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.9 FP
Sleeper: 6.6 FP
FantasyPros: 6.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Harold Fannin Jr. faces HOU in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 10.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.

Samaje Perine

FF projection: 4.4 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.6 FP
Sleeper: 4.5 FP
FantasyPros: 4.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Samaje Perine faces PIT in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.

Harold Fannin Jr. projects for 6.7 points in standard scoring, 2.3 more than Samaje Perine. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:40 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Harold Fannin Jr. and Samaje Perine?

Harold Fannin Jr. holds a 2.3 FP projected edge over Samaje Perine. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Harold Fannin Jr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Harold Fannin Jr.

Harold Fannin Jr. has a 6.7 FP forecast in Standard against HOU. His recorded recent scoring average is 10.2 FP, putting this forecast 3.6 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 6.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Samaje Perine

Samaje Perine has a 4.4 FP forecast in Standard against PIT. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.6 FP, putting this forecast 0.2 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 5%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Harold Fannin Jr.	Samaje Perine	Projected edge
ESPN	5.9 FP	4.6 FP	Harold Fannin Jr. +1.3
Sleeper	6.6 FP	4.5 FP	Harold Fannin Jr. +2.1
FantasyPros	6.3 FP	4.9 FP	Harold Fannin Jr. +1.3
Boosted Trees	5.7 FP	4.1 FP	Harold Fannin Jr. +1.7

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Harold Fannin Jr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Samaje Perine: Sun 8:20 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.422.6

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 19.7
20.5Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.6Sleeper 15.4FantasyPros 17.6
19.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.1Sleeper 18.6FantasyPros 17.0
18.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 10