
Should I start Eli Raridon or T.J. Hockenson this week? Week 10 Standard (2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: T.J. Hockenson
Week 10 ยท Standard
T.J. Hockenson has the higher current FF forecast: 5.4 FP versus 5.1 FP. The 0.3-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- T.J. Hockenson: 10.7 FP recent scoring average.
- T.J. Hockenson: 8.75% matchup reduction against GB.
Forecast updated ยท Standard



T.J. Hockenson
TE ยท MINStats & schedule โบEli Raridon
- Recent scoring average: 4.4 FP.
- The DET defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 10%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 3.3 targets per game.
T.J. Hockenson
- Recent scoring average: 10.7 FP.
- The GB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.0 targets per game.
Eli Raridon
- FF projection
- 5.1 FP Evenvs ESPN
- ESPN
- 5.1 FP
- Sleeper
- 3.4 FP
- FantasyPros
- 5.1 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 4.1 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Eli Raridon faces DET in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.
T.J. Hockenson
- FF projection
- 5.4 FP +0.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 4.8 FP
- Sleeper
- 5.7 FP
- FantasyPros
- 3.2 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 5.4 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
T.J. Hockenson faces GB in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 10.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Isaiah LikelyTE ยท NYG vs WASThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 11.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 8.6Sleeper 8.4FantasyPros 11.811.0Expected FP - 2
George KittleTE ยท SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 10.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.3Sleeper 10.9FantasyPros 7.710.2Expected FP - 3
Brock BowersTE ยท LV vs SEASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 9.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 11.0Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 7.89.7Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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T.J. Hockenson5.4projected FP
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