THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Dillon
RB · CARStats & schedule ›2.0FF projected
↓ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or John Metchie III this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start John Metchie III
Week 7 · Standard
Recent scoring favors John Metchie III: 3.0 versus 0.7 FP per game. John Metchie III receives the better positional matchup adjustment (0% versus -8.75%).
Forecast updated · Standard
vs TBRESEARCH PICK
John Metchie III
WR · CARStats & schedule ›2.0FF projected
↓ -0.9 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.0 FP
Boosted Trees1.9 FP
Workload2.4 FP
Monte Carlo2.3 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 0.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 0.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
John Metchie III
FF2.0 FP
Boosted Trees3.1 FP
Workload3.1 FP
Monte Carlo3.2 FP
- Recent scoring average: 3.0 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 3.3 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.3 targets per game.
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.0
ESPN2.6
Sleeper1.9
FantasyPros—
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
John Metchie III
Fortified2.0
ESPN2.9
Sleeper0.9
FantasyPros—
John Metchie III faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.0 fantasy points.
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