THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Dillon
RB ยท CARStats & schedule โบ2.3FF projected
โ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or John Metchie III this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start John Metchie III
Week 7 ยท Half-PPR
Recent scoring favors John Metchie III: 4.3 versus 1.2 FP per game. John Metchie III receives the better positional matchup adjustment (0% versus -7.5%).
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR
vs TBRESEARCH PICK
John Metchie III
WR ยท CARStats & schedule โบ2.8FF projected
โ -1.1 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.3 FP
Boosted Trees2.4 FP
Workload2.7 FP
Monte Carlo2.7 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.2 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.2 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
John Metchie III
FF2.8 FP
Boosted Trees3.7 FP
Workload4.1 FP
Monte Carlo4.1 FP
- Recent scoring average: 4.3 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 3.3 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.3 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.3
ESPN3.0
Sleeper2.2
FantasyProsโ
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
John Metchie III
Fortified2.8
ESPN3.9
Sleeper1.2
FantasyProsโ
John Metchie III faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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