THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Barner
TE ยท SEAStats & schedule โบ4.1FF projected
โ -0.3 vs ESPN
vs KCSun 8:20 PM ET
Should I start AJ Barner or Tez Johnson this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Tez Johnson
Week 7 ยท Standard
Recent scoring favors Tez Johnson: 3.3 versus 1.6 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Standard
vs KCRESEARCH PICK
Tez Johnson
WR ยท TBStats & schedule โบ4.5FF projected
โ -1.4 vs ESPN
at CARSun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Barner
FF4.1 FP
Boosted Trees4.9 FP
Workload3.6 FP
Monte Carlo3.5 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.6 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.6 FP.
- The KC defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.2 targets and 0.1 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Drew Lock; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 targets per game.
Tez Johnson
FF4.5 FP
Boosted Trees5.7 FP
Workload5.0 FP
Monte Carlo5.0 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 3.3 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 3.3 FP.
- The CAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.0 targets and 0.4 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Baker Mayfield; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 2.0 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
AJ Barner
Fortified4.1
ESPN4.4
Sleeper4.6
FantasyProsโ
AJ Barner faces KC in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.
Tez Johnson
Fortified4.5
ESPN5.9
Sleeper3.7
FantasyProsโ
Tez Johnson faces CAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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