Should I start Malik Willis or Matthew Stafford this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Matthew Stafford

Malik Willis is not the current starting quarterback. Matthew Stafford is the usable option, with 17.8 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

Matthew Stafford · Starter role checked Nov 14, 2026, 7:30 AM ET

Malik Willis · Injury report dated Nov 11, 2026, 3:15 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 14, 2026, 7:30 AM ET

Matthew Stafford: 12.3 FP recent scoring average.
Matthew Stafford: 6.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:30 AM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Matthew Stafford

QB · LARStats & schedule

17.8FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Malik Willis

QB · MIAStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

at IND

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Matthew Stafford

FF projection: 17.8 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 17.0 FP
Sleeper: 16.0 FP
FantasyPros: 17.2 FP

Matthew Stafford faces ARI in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 12.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 6.25%.

Malik Willis

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Malik Willis faces IND in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 14.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%. NOT_STARTING

Malik Willis is not the current starting quarterback. Matthew Stafford is the usable option, with 17.8 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:30 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.724.7

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.3Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 24.1
24.7Expected FP
2
Drake MayeQB · NE vs DETSun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.4
24.3Expected FP
3
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.7Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 22.4
23.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.