Should I start Geno Smith or J.J. McCarthy this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

One or both games have started

Treat these as projection comparisons, not a fresh lineup instruction. Check your league’s lineup locks before making changes.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:10 AM ET · PPR

THE WEEK 9 FILE · REST OF SEASONBraelon and the Jets.Hall’s return. Cooper’s target swing. The roles and routes behind your next Jets decision.Read the analysis ↗

THE ALTERNATIVE

Geno Smith

QB · NYJStats & schedule

15.5FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

J.J. McCarthy

QB · NYGStats & schedule

14.5FF projected

↓ -0.7 vs ESPN

vs WAS

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Geno Smith

FF projection: 15.5 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 14.8 FP
Sleeper: 16.1 FP
FantasyPros: 15.5 FP

Geno Smith faces BUF in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 16.3 fantasy points.

J.J. McCarthy

FF projection: 14.5 FP -0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 15.2 FP
Sleeper: 15.7 FP
FantasyPros: 15.8 FP

J.J. McCarthy faces WAS in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 8.7 fantasy points.

Treat these as projection comparisons, not a fresh lineup instruction. Check your league’s lineup locks before making changes.

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 7:10 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.724.7

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.3Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 24.1
24.7Expected FP
2
Drake MayeQB · NE vs DETSun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.4
24.3Expected FP
3
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.7Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 22.4
23.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.