Should I start Emmett Johnson or Mack Hollins this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Mack Hollins

+0.8 projected edge · PPR

Start Mack Hollins over Emmett Johnson for Week 10 PPR: 9.7 projected points versus 8.9.

Mack Hollins: 12.6 FP recent scoring average.
Mack Hollins: 2.5% matchup lift against DET.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 7:53 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Mack Hollins

WR · NEStats & schedule

9.7FF projected

↑ +0.4 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 9:30 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Emmett Johnson

RB · KCStats & schedule

8.9FF projected

↑ +2.5 vs ESPN

at ATL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Mack Hollins

FF projection: 9.7 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.3 FP
Sleeper: 8.1 FP
FantasyPros: 8.7 FP

Mack Hollins faces DET in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 12.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Emmett Johnson

FF projection: 8.9 FP +2.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.4 FP
Sleeper: 9.8 FP
FantasyPros: 7.1 FP

Emmett Johnson faces ATL in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 12.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Mack Hollins projects for 9.7 points in PPR scoring, 0.8 more than Emmett Johnson. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 7:53 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

21.824.4

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.9Sleeper 24.4FantasyPros 24.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.3Sleeper 22.8FantasyPros 22.2
23.6Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.8Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 22.0
23.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.