Should I start Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes II this week? Week 8 PPR (2026)

THE RESEARCH PICK

Start Caleb Williams

Week 8 · PPR

Caleb Williams averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game across the last 3 recorded games, compared with 28.0 for Patrick Mahomes II. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Caleb Williams: 19.3 versus 8.2 FP per game.

Forecast updated Oct 28, 2026, 12:35 AM ET · PPR

RESEARCH PICK

Caleb Williams

QB · CHIStats & schedule

14.8FF projected

↓ -0.8 vs ESPN

at SEA

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KCStats & schedule

14.3FF projected

↑ +0.1 vs ESPN

at DEN

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Experimental research pick, not a proven win probability. This does not change either FF projection.

Caleb Williams

FF14.8 FP

Boosted Trees15.4 FP

Workload14.9 FP

Monte Carlo16.2 FP

Middle 80% scoring range: 7.2–25.9 FP

His prior three-game scoring average was 16.5 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.7 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
Recent scoring average: 19.3 FP.
The SEA defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 3.6 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
Return scenarios include Kyle Monangai; their availability can redistribute the workload.
Last 3 recorded games: 30.3 pass attempts per game.

Patrick Mahomes II

FF14.3 FP

Boosted Trees17.6 FP

Workload14.4 FP

Monte Carlo14.2 FP

Middle 80% scoring range: 5.9–22.7 FP

His prior three-game scoring average was 10.5 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 1.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
Recent scoring average: 8.2 FP.
The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 3.5 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
Return scenarios include Rashee Rice; their availability can redistribute the workload.
Last 3 recorded games: 28.0 pass attempts per game.

Experimental models are research signals, not a validated tiebreaker yet. Missing saved results stay blank. No simulations or training were run for this request.

Caleb Williams

Fortified14.8

ESPN15.6

Sleeper15.1

FantasyPros16.0

Caleb Williams faces SEA in Week 8. Recent scoring average: 19.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.

Patrick Mahomes II

Fortified14.3

ESPN14.2

Sleeper16.4

FantasyPros15.7

Patrick Mahomes II faces DEN in Week 8. Recent scoring average: 8.2 fantasy points.

Caleb Williams projects for 14.8 points in PPR scoring, 0.5 more than Patrick Mahomes II. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice. FantasyPros refresh is rate-limited. Same-week cached projections are used (under one hour old; oldest update Oct 28, 2026, 12:15 AM ET).

Updated Oct 28, 2026, 12:35 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.