Should I start Aidan O'Connell or Andy Dalton this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Aidan O'Connell: Fernando Mendoza is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. One source has him at zero while another expects points. Check his game status before relying on this comparison. Andy Dalton: Michael Penix Jr. is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Aidan O'Connell · Injury report dated Nov 11, 2026, 2:12 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 15, 2026, 10:45 AM ET

Andy Dalton · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 3:54 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 15, 2026, 10:45 AM ET

Aidan O'Connell: 7.5% matchup reduction against SEA.
Andy Dalton: 8.75% matchup reduction against KC.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 10:50 AM ET · PPR

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Aidan O'Connell

QB · LVStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs SEA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Andy Dalton

QB · ATLStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs KC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aidan O'Connell

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 0.3 FP

Aidan O'Connell faces SEA in Week 10. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%. NOT_STARTING

Andy Dalton

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 0.0 FP

Andy Dalton faces KC in Week 10. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%. NOT_STARTING

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 10:50 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.024.6

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.3Sleeper 23.8FantasyPros 24.1
24.6Expected FP
2
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.7Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 22.4
23.9Expected FP
3
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.0Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.4
22.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.