Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Xavier Worthy this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Aaron Jones Sr.

+1.6 projected edge · PPR

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Xavier Worthy for Week 10 PPR: 8.5 projected points versus 6.9.

Xavier Worthy: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Xavier Worthy · Injury report dated Nov 11, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Aaron Jones Sr.: 4.2 FP recent scoring average.
Aaron Jones Sr.: 7.5% matchup lift against GB.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:12 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

8.5FF projected

↑ +0.1 vs ESPN

at GB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Xavier Worthy

WR · KCStats & schedule

6.9FF projected

↓ -1.3 vs ESPN

at ATL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 8.5 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 8.5 FP
Sleeper: 8.9 FP
FantasyPros: 8.7 FP

Aaron Jones Sr. faces GB in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Xavier Worthy

FF projection: 6.9 FP -1.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.3 FP
Sleeper: 7.3 FP
FantasyPros: 6.0 FP

Xavier Worthy faces ATL in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 6.4 fantasy points. Xavier Worthy is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff. FantasyPros estimates a 98% chance of playing (checked Nov 12, 2:12 PM ET).

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 8.5 points, 1.6 more than Xavier Worthy.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:12 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Xavier Worthy?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 1.6 FP projected edge over Xavier Worthy. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 8.5 FP forecast in PPR at GB. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.2 FP, putting this forecast 4.3 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy has a 6.9 FP forecast in PPR at ATL. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.4 FP, putting this forecast 0.5 points above that average. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Xavier Worthy	Projected edge
ESPN	8.5 FP	8.3 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.2
Sleeper	8.9 FP	7.3 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.6
FantasyPros	8.7 FP	6.0 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.7

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Xavier Worthy: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

21.826.1

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 26.1Sleeper 22.3FantasyPros 21.8
24.4Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.3Sleeper 23.8FantasyPros 22.7
24.2Expected FP
3
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.9Sleeper 24.8FantasyPros 24.6
24.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 10