Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Keenan Allen this week? (PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Aaron Jones Sr.

+1.4 projected edge · PPR

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Keenan Allen for Week 10 PPR: 8.6 projected points versus 7.2.

Aaron Jones Sr.: 4.2 FP recent scoring average.
Aaron Jones Sr.: 7.5% matchup lift against GB.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:45 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

8.6FF projected

↑ +0.1 vs ESPN

at GB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Keenan Allen

WR · SFStats & schedule

7.2FF projected

↓ -1.5 vs ESPN

at DAL

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 8.6 FP +0.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.5 FP
Sleeper: 9.0 FP
FantasyPros: 8.7 FP

Aaron Jones Sr. faces GB in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Keenan Allen

FF projection: 7.2 FP -1.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.7 FP
Sleeper: 5.8 FP
FantasyPros: 6.8 FP

Keenan Allen faces DAL in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 8.8 fantasy points.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 8.6 points in PPR scoring, 1.4 more than Keenan Allen. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:45 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Keenan Allen?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 1.4 FP projected edge over Keenan Allen. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Aaron Jones Sr., while ESPN leans toward Keenan Allen. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 8.6 FP forecast in PPR at GB. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.2 FP, putting this forecast 4.3 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen has a 7.2 FP forecast in PPR at DAL. His recorded recent scoring average is 8.8 FP, putting this forecast 1.6 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Keenan Allen	Projected edge
ESPN	8.5 FP	8.7 FP	Keenan Allen +0.2
Sleeper	9.0 FP	5.8 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +3.2
FantasyPros	8.7 FP	6.8 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.9

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Keenan Allen: Sun 4:25 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

21.826.1

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 26.1Sleeper 22.0FantasyPros 21.8
24.4Expected FP
2
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.9Sleeper 24.7FantasyPros 24.6
24.1Expected FP
3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.3Sleeper 22.8FantasyPros 22.4
23.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

More decisions involving your players

Compare another option for the same lineup decision. These are Start/Sit decisions for players you already own. Availability and scoring can change the call.

Flex · Week 10