Should I start Tay Martin or Tim Patrick this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Tay Martin

The displayed FF scores are tied, and ESPN does not separate them on a comparable margin. Tay Martin has the higher unrounded FF forecast (0.18 versus 0.16 FP).

Tay Martin: 0.5 FP recent scoring average.
Tay Martin: 10% matchup lift against NE.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 8:28 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tay Martin

WR · DETStats & schedule

0.2FF projected

vs NE

Sun 9:30 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tim Patrick

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.2FF projected

vs BUF

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tay Martin

FF projection: 0.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.3 FP
FantasyPros: 0.2 FP
Boosted Trees: -0.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tay Martin faces NE in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 0.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Tim Patrick

FF projection: 0.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP
FantasyPros: 0.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tim Patrick faces BUF in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

The displayed FF scores are tied, and ESPN does not separate them on a comparable margin. Tay Martin has the higher unrounded FF forecast (0.18 versus 0.16 FP).

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 8:28 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.720.2

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.5Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 18.4
20.2Expected FP
2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 18.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.7FantasyPros 16.3
18.1Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 17.1
17.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.