Should I start Jonnu Smith or Theo Johnson this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Theo Johnson

+0.9 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Theo Johnson over Jonnu Smith for Week 9 Half-PPR: 2.2 projected points versus 1.2.

Theo Johnson: 7.5% matchup reduction against PHI.
Jonnu Smith: 0.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 5:13 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Theo Johnson

TE · NYGStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

at PHI

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jonnu Smith

TE · GBStats & schedule

1.2FF projected

at NE

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Theo Johnson

FF projection: 2.2 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 2.2 FP
Sleeper: 2.4 FP
FantasyPros: 2.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Theo Johnson faces PHI in Week 9. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.

Jonnu Smith

FF projection: 1.2 FP
Sleeper: 1.7 FP
FantasyPros: 0.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jonnu Smith faces NE in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points.

Theo Johnson projects for 2.2 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.9 more than Jonnu Smith. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 5:13 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.815.2

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.7Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 14.1
15.2Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 13.5Sleeper 12.7FantasyPros 13.5
14.4Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.8Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 11.9
12.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.