Should I start Jaydn Ott or Lan Larison this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Lan Larison

+0.3 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Lan Larison over Jaydn Ott for Week 10 Half-PPR: 4.7 projected points versus 4.3.

Jaydn Ott: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Jaydn Ott · Injury report dated Nov 13, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Lan Larison: 0.5 FP recent scoring average.
Lan Larison: 8.75% matchup reduction against DET.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 4:33 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Lan Larison

RB · NEStats & schedule

4.7FF projected

↓ -1.9 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 9:30 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jaydn Ott

RB · KCStats & schedule

4.3FF projected

↓ -2.8 vs ESPN

at ATL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Lan Larison

FF projection: 4.7 FP -1.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.6 FP
Sleeper: 7.2 FP
FantasyPros: 5.6 FP

Lan Larison faces DET in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 0.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.

Jaydn Ott

FF projection: 4.3 FP -2.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.2 FP
Sleeper: 3.6 FP
FantasyPros: 5.2 FP

Jaydn Ott faces ATL in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 0.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%. Jaydn Ott is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff. FantasyPros estimates a 60% chance of playing (checked Nov 15, 4:32 AM ET).

Lan Larison projects for 4.7 points, 0.3 more than Jaydn Ott.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 4:33 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.922.7

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.6Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 22.0
22.7Expected FP
2
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 19.3
20.4Expected FP
3
Chuba HubbardRB · CAR vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 16.9
19.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.