Should I start Garrett Wilson or Zay Flowers this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

One or both games have started

Treat these as projection comparisons, not a fresh lineup instruction. Check your league’s lineup locks before making changes.

Forecast updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET · Half-PPR

THE WEEK 9 FILE · REST OF SEASONBraelon and the Jets.Hall’s return. Cooper’s target swing. The roles and routes behind your next Jets decision.Read the analysis ↗

THE ALTERNATIVE

Garrett Wilson

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

at KC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Zay Flowers

WR · BALStats & schedule

12.1FF projected

↑ +1.6 vs ESPN

vs JAC

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Garrett Wilson

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Garrett Wilson faces KC in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 7.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%. OUT

Zay Flowers

FF projection: 12.1 FP +1.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 10.4 FP
Sleeper: 11.2 FP
FantasyPros: 11.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Zay Flowers faces JAC in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 11.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Treat these as projection comparisons, not a fresh lineup instruction. Check your league’s lineup locks before making changes.

Updated Nov 7, 2026, 11:20 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.620.8

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.7FantasyPros 19.7
20.8Expected FP
2
Puka NacuaWR · LAR vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.0Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 19.8
20.4Expected FP
3
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.2Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 16.6
17.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.