Should I start Elijah Sarratt or Tez Johnson this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Elijah Sarratt

Tez Johnson is on bye in Week 10 and projects for 0.0 FP. Elijah Sarratt has a scheduled game and projects for 0.2 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Elijah Sarratt: 8.75% matchup lift against LAC.
Tez Johnson: 6.8 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 8:20 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Elijah Sarratt

WR · BALStats & schedule

0.2FF projected

vs LAC

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tez Johnson

WR · TBStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

BYE

Check bye / schedule

Why this pick?

Elijah Sarratt

FF projection: 0.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.4 FP
FantasyPros: 0.2 FP
Boosted Trees: -0.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Elijah Sarratt faces LAC in Week 10. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.

Tez Johnson

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 0.0 FP

Recent scoring average: 6.8 fantasy points. BYE

Tez Johnson is on bye in Week 10 and projects for 0.0 FP. Elijah Sarratt has a scheduled game and projects for 0.2 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 8:20 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.920.3

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.5Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 18.6
20.3Expected FP
2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 16.3
18.2Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 17.1
17.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.