Should I start Dylan Sampson or Tyler Allgeier this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Tyler Allgeier

+2.6 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tyler Allgeier over Dylan Sampson for Week 10 Half-PPR: 9.3 projected points versus 6.8.

Tyler Allgeier: 15.2 FP recent scoring average.
Tyler Allgeier: 5% matchup reduction against LAR.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 7:08 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARIStats & schedule

9.3FF projected

↑ +1.6 vs ESPN

vs LAR

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dylan Sampson

RB · CLEStats & schedule

6.8FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tyler Allgeier

FF projection: 9.3 FP +1.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.7 FP
Sleeper: 8.5 FP
FantasyPros: 9.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tyler Allgeier faces LAR in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 15.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.

Dylan Sampson

FF projection: 6.8 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.2 FP
Sleeper: 6.6 FP
FantasyPros: 7.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dylan Sampson faces HOU in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 8.5 fantasy points.

Tyler Allgeier projects for 9.3 points in half-PPR scoring, 2.6 more than Dylan Sampson. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 7:08 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dylan Sampson and Tyler Allgeier?

Tyler Allgeier holds a 2.6 FP projected edge over Dylan Sampson. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Tyler Allgeier higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dylan Sampson

Dylan Sampson has a 6.8 FP forecast in Half-PPR against HOU. His recorded recent scoring average is 8.5 FP, putting this forecast 1.7 points below that average.

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier has a 9.3 FP forecast in Half-PPR against LAR. His recorded recent scoring average is 15.2 FP, putting this forecast 5.9 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 5%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dylan Sampson	Tyler Allgeier	Projected edge
ESPN	7.2 FP	7.7 FP	Tyler Allgeier +0.5
Sleeper	6.6 FP	8.5 FP	Tyler Allgeier +1.9
FantasyPros	7.0 FP	9.2 FP	Tyler Allgeier +2.2
Boosted Trees	4.5 FP	6.0 FP	Tyler Allgeier +1.5

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dylan Sampson: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Tyler Allgeier: Sun 4:05 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.824.4

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.6Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.8
22.6Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 21.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.4Sleeper 16.8FantasyPros 19.9
21.4Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 19.6
20.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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RB · Week 10