Should I start DJ Moore or Tetairoa McMillan this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Tetairoa McMillan

+0.9 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tetairoa McMillan over DJ Moore for Week 9 Half-PPR: 10.8 projected points versus 9.9.

Tetairoa McMillan: 8.8 FP recent scoring average.
Tetairoa McMillan: 3.75% matchup reduction against DEN.

Forecast updated Nov 8, 2026, 5:22 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · CARStats & schedule

10.8FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

vs DEN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

DJ Moore

WR · BUFStats & schedule

9.9FF projected

↓ -0.6 vs ESPN

at MIN

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tetairoa McMillan

FF projection: 10.8 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 11.2 FP
Sleeper: 11.3 FP
FantasyPros: 10.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 14.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tetairoa McMillan faces DEN in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 8.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%.

DJ Moore

FF projection: 9.9 FP -0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 10.5 FP
Sleeper: 10.8 FP
FantasyPros: 9.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

DJ Moore faces MIN in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 14.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.

Tetairoa McMillan projects for 10.8 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.9 more than DJ Moore. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 8, 2026, 5:22 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.520.9

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.7FantasyPros 19.7
20.9Expected FP
2
Puka NacuaWR · LAR vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.0Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 19.8
20.4Expected FP
3
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.2Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 16.5
17.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.