Should I start Davis Allen or DJ Moore this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start DJ Moore

+6.4 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start DJ Moore over Davis Allen for Week 10 Half-PPR: 10.4 projected points versus 3.9.

Davis Allen: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Davis Allen · Injury report dated Nov 13, 2026, 7:18 PM ET

DJ Moore: 9.8 FP recent scoring average.
DJ Moore: 1.25% matchup reduction against NYJ.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 12:40 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

DJ Moore

WR · BUFStats & schedule

10.4FF projected

↓ -1.1 vs ESPN

at NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Davis Allen

TE · LARStats & schedule

3.9FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

DJ Moore

FF projection: 10.4 FP -1.0vs ESPN
ESPN: 11.4 FP
Sleeper: 10.3 FP
FantasyPros: 10.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

DJ Moore faces NYJ in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 9.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Davis Allen

FF projection: 3.9 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 3.9 FP
Sleeper: 2.8 FP
FantasyPros: 4.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Davis Allen faces ARI in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 5.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%. Davis Allen is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff. FantasyPros estimates a 80% chance of playing (checked Nov 15, 12:25 PM ET).

DJ Moore projects for 10.4 points, 6.4 more than Davis Allen.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 12:40 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.522.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETLocked · Range unavailable
Mean 22.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.6Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 22.1
22.8Expected FP
2
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 19.3
20.5Expected FP
3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.5Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 18.6
20.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.