Should I start Darren Waller or Jonnu Smith this week? Week 10 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Darren Waller

+4.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Darren Waller over Jonnu Smith for Week 10 Half-PPR: 5.9 projected points versus 1.4.

Darren Waller: 4.4 FP recent scoring average.
Darren Waller: 3.75% matchup lift against NO.

Forecast updated Nov 9, 2026, 6:07 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Darren Waller

TE · CARStats & schedule

5.9FF projected

↑ +0.6 vs ESPN

at NO

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jonnu Smith

TE · GBStats & schedule

1.4FF projected

vs MIN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Darren Waller

FF projection: 5.9 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.3 FP
Sleeper: 6.7 FP
FantasyPros: 5.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Darren Waller faces NO in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

Jonnu Smith

FF projection: 1.4 FP
Sleeper: 1.6 FP
FantasyPros: 1.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jonnu Smith faces MIN in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Darren Waller projects for 5.9 points in half-PPR scoring, 4.5 more than Jonnu Smith. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 9, 2026, 6:07 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.214.3

FF MEAN

1
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG vs WASThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.1Sleeper 10.7FantasyPros 14.3
13.8Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 13.0Sleeper 13.7FantasyPros 10.2
13.1Expected FP
3
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SEASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.2Sleeper 13.6FantasyPros 10.7
12.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.