Should I start Cooper Kupp or Efton Chism III this week? (Half-PPR Week 10 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Cooper Kupp

+0.6 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Cooper Kupp over Efton Chism III for Week 10 Half-PPR: 5.4 projected points versus 4.9.

Cooper Kupp: 5.0 FP recent scoring average.
Cooper Kupp: 5% matchup lift against LV.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:34 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Cooper Kupp

WR · SEAStats & schedule

5.4FF projected

↑ +0.9 vs ESPN

at LV

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Efton Chism III

WR · NEStats & schedule

4.9FF projected

↓ -1.2 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 9:30 AM ET

Why this pick?

Cooper Kupp

FF projection: 5.4 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.5 FP
Sleeper: 5.5 FP
FantasyPros: 5.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Cooper Kupp faces LV in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 5.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.

Efton Chism III

FF projection: 4.9 FP -1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.1 FP
Sleeper: 2.3 FP
FantasyPros: 4.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Efton Chism III faces DET in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 6.6 fantasy points.

Cooper Kupp projects for 5.4 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.6 more than Efton Chism III. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:34 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.920.7

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.5Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 19.0
20.7Expected FP
2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 18.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 16.3
18.2Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 16.7FantasyPros 17.4
17.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.