Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Tyler Allgeier this week? Week 10 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Tyler Allgeier

+1.2 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tyler Allgeier over Aaron Jones Sr. for Week 10 Half-PPR: 9.2 projected points versus 8.0.

Tyler Allgeier: 15.1 FP recent scoring average.
Aaron Jones Sr.: 4.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 8, 2026, 7:57 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARIStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

vs LAR

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

8.0FF projected

↑ +1.6 vs ESPN

at GB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tyler Allgeier

FF projection: 9.2 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 9.2 FP
Sleeper: 9.3 FP
FantasyPros: 6.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tyler Allgeier faces LAR in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 15.1 fantasy points.

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 8.0 FP +1.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.4 FP
Sleeper: 8.9 FP
FantasyPros: 9.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces GB in Week 10. Recent scoring average: 4.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Tyler Allgeier projects for 9.2 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.2 more than Aaron Jones Sr.. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 8, 2026, 7:57 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Tyler Allgeier?

Tyler Allgeier holds a 1.2 FP projected edge over Aaron Jones Sr.. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Aaron Jones Sr., while ESPN, Sleeper lean toward Tyler Allgeier. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 8.0 FP forecast in Half-PPR at GB. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.0 FP, putting this forecast 3.9 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 2.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against LAR. His recorded recent scoring average is 15.1 FP, putting this forecast 5.9 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Tyler Allgeier	Projected edge
ESPN	6.4 FP	9.2 FP	Tyler Allgeier +2.7
Sleeper	8.9 FP	9.3 FP	Tyler Allgeier +0.4
FantasyPros	9.0 FP	6.7 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.4
Boosted Trees	8.8 FP	6.0 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.8

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Tyler Allgeier: Sun 4:05 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

RB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.721.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NESun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.8Sleeper 21.6FantasyPros 18.2
21.1Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.9Sleeper 19.0FantasyPros 17.7
20.6Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs DALSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.3Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 18.4
19.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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