Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Dalton Kincaid this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Aaron Jones Sr.

+0.8 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Dalton Kincaid for Week 9 Half-PPR: 8.4 projected points versus 7.6.

Aaron Jones Sr.: 4.0 FP recent scoring average.
Aaron Jones Sr.: 7.5% matchup lift against BUF.

Forecast updated Nov 7, 2026, 9:57 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

8.4FF projected

↑ +1.0 vs ESPN

vs BUF

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUFStats & schedule

7.6FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

at MIN

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 8.4 FP +1.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.3 FP
Sleeper: 8.8 FP
FantasyPros: 8.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 10.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces BUF in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 4.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Dalton Kincaid

FF projection: 7.6 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.9 FP
Sleeper: 7.7 FP
FantasyPros: 7.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dalton Kincaid faces MIN in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 11.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 8.4 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.8 more than Dalton Kincaid. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 7, 2026, 9:57 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Dalton Kincaid?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 0.8 FP projected edge over Dalton Kincaid. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 8.4 FP forecast in Half-PPR against BUF. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.0 FP, putting this forecast 4.3 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid has a 7.6 FP forecast in Half-PPR at MIN. His recorded recent scoring average is 11.9 FP, putting this forecast 4.4 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Dalton Kincaid	Projected edge
ESPN	7.3 FP	6.9 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.4
Sleeper	8.8 FP	7.7 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.1
FantasyPros	8.2 FP	7.7 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.5
Boosted Trees	10.1 FP	6.9 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +3.2

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Mon 8:15 PM ET. Dalton Kincaid: Mon 8:15 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.925.0

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.2Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 23.5
25.0Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 19.7
20.8Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.5Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.8
20.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 9