Who should I pick up: Sam Darnold or Trevor Lawrence?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Trevor Lawrence

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Trevor Lawrence over Sam Darnold: 20.7 versus 15.6 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THE ALTERNATIVE

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.6FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.3%rostered on ESPN-0.12 pp recent change

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAC · vs IND

Stats & schedule ›

20.7FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

91.8%rostered on ESPN+0.12 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Trevor Lawrence is the stronger immediate points option. Sam Darnold is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.6 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.12 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.6 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 15.0 FP
FantasyPros: 16.6 FP
FF median: 14.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 10.8–21.1 FP · middle 80%: 6.5–25.0 FP. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence projects for 20.7 Standard points against IND this week. His recent scoring average is 24.5 FP. He is rostered in 91.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.12 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 20.7 FP
ESPN: 20.8 FP
Sleeper: 19.5 FP
FantasyPros: 20.3 FP
FF median: 19.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 22.7 FP
Workload: 20.0 FP
Monte Carlo: 19.7 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 14.5–28.4 FP · middle 80%: 8.7–33.5 FP. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 8.2–31.9 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET / Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Sam Darnold	Trevor Lawrence
Next 3 weeks	49.6 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	62.0 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	145.3 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	234.0 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	51.9 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	89.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Sam Darnold	Trevor Lawrence
Week 8	15.6 FPvs CHI	20.7 FPvs INDHigher projection
Week 9	17.6 FPvs ARI	19.8 FPvs BALHigher projection
Week 10	16.4 FPvs LV	21.5 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 11	BYE	20.8 FPvs NYGHigher projection
Week 12	13.0 FPvs SF	21.9 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 13	16.2 FPvs DAL	21.0 FPvs CHIHigher projection
Week 14	14.5 FPvs NYG	18.9 FPvs PITHigher projection
Week 15	13.7 FPvs PHI	20.6 FPvs HOUHigher projection
Week 16	12.7 FPvs LAR	23.2 FPvs DALHigher projection
Week 17	13.2 FPvs CAR	24.7 FPvs WASHigher projection
Week 18	12.3 FPvs LAR	20.7 FPvs INDHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF expected-points order within this pickup pool, with higher FF-minus-ESPN margin breaking displayed ties. Available model ranges provide context.

9.6 FP38.6 FP

Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
24.0
Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.7
Joe BurrowQB · 98.8% rostered
23.0
Dak PrescottQB · 92.4% rostered
22.8
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.8% rostered
21.9

What about Trevor Lawrence versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Jayden Daniels21.5projected FP

Trevor Lawrence20.7projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Lamar Jackson21.9projected FP

Trevor Lawrence20.7projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Joe Burrow23.0projected FP

Trevor Lawrence20.7projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Jared Goff15.7projected FP

Trevor Lawrence20.7projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8