Who should I pick up: Michael Penix Jr. or Sam Darnold?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Sam Darnold

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Sam Darnold over Michael Penix Jr.: 15.2 versus 14.6 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 11:56 AM ET · Common scoring preset

THE ALTERNATIVE

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs TB

Stats & schedule ›

14.6FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

18.1%rostered on ESPN+1.20 pp recent change

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.2FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.5%rostered on ESPN-0.17 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Sam Darnold is the stronger immediate points option. Michael Penix Jr. is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix Jr. projects for 14.6 Standard points against TB this week. His recent scoring average is 19.3 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 18.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 1.20 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.6 FP
ESPN: 15.8 FP
Sleeper: 14.1 FP
FantasyPros: 14.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 13.1 FP
Workload: 15.9 FP
Monte Carlo: 16.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 7.0–26.6 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.2 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.17 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.2 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 16.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET / Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Michael Penix Jr.	Sam Darnold
Next 3 weeks	44.0 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	49.1 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	155.6 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	144.7 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	64.8 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	52.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Michael Penix Jr.	Sam Darnold
Week 8	14.6 FPvs TB	15.2 FPvs CHIHigher projection
Week 9	15.7 FPvs CIN	17.5 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 10	13.7 FPvs KC	16.4 FPvs LVHigher projection
Week 11	BYE	BYE
Week 12	12.5 FPvs MIN	13.0 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 13	19.8 FPvs DETHigher projection	16.2 FPvs DAL
Week 14	14.6 FPvs CLEHigher projection	14.5 FPvs NYG
Week 15	18.4 FPvs WASHigher projection	13.7 FPvs PHI
Week 16	14.7 FPvs TBHigher projection	12.7 FPvs LAR
Week 17	16.5 FPvs NOHigher projection	13.2 FPvs CAR
Week 18	15.1 FPvs CARHigher projection	12.3 FPvs LAR

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:10 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

20.5 FP24.6 FP

Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.3
Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
23.0
Joe BurrowQB · 98.7% rostered
22.3
Jayden DanielsQB · 95.0% rostered
21.6
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.7% rostered
21.5

What about Sam Darnold versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Sam Darnold15.2projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Jacoby Brissett18.5projected FP

Sam Darnold15.2projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Sam Darnold15.2projected FP

Tanner McKee13.8projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Jared Goff15.9projected FP

Sam Darnold15.2projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8

Jacoby Brissett18.5projected FP