Who should I pick up: Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes II?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Matthew Stafford

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Matthew Stafford over Patrick Mahomes II: 16.6 versus 14.3 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:55 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Matthew Stafford

QB · LAR · vs LAC

Stats & schedule ›

16.6FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET

92.1%rostered on ESPN-0.09 pp recent change

THE ALTERNATIVE

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs DEN

Stats & schedule ›

14.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

90.1%rostered on ESPN-0.40 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Matthew Stafford is the stronger immediate points option. Patrick Mahomes II is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford projects for 16.6 Standard points against LAC this week. His recent scoring average is 20.6 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 2.5%. He is rostered in 92.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.09 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 16.6 FP
ESPN: 16.9 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 17.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.0 FP
Workload: 16.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 16.1 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · conditional on availability · central 80%: 6.8–26.0 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 14.3 Standard points against DEN this week. His recent scoring average is 8.2 FP. He is rostered in 90.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.40 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.3 FP
ESPN: 14.2 FP
Sleeper: 16.4 FP
FantasyPros: 15.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.5 FP
Workload: 14.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · conditional on availability · central 80%: 5.9–22.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 2:30 PM ET / Oct 30, 2:30 PM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Matthew Stafford	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	56.7 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	46.2 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	165.3 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	180.1 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	62.7 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	65.4 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Matthew Stafford	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 8	16.6 FPvs LACHigher projection	14.3 FPvs DEN
Week 9	19.5 FPvs WASHigher projection	16.6 FPvs NYJ
Week 10	20.7 FPvs ARIHigher projection	15.3 FPvs ATL
Week 11	BYE	20.0 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	15.4 FPvs GB	17.9 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	14.6 FPvs KC	14.7 FPvs LARHigher projection
Week 14	15.9 FPvs SF	15.9 FPvs CIN
Week 15	19.1 FPvs DALHigher projection	15.9 FPvs NE
Week 16	14.0 FPvs SEA	15.4 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 17	15.6 FPvs TBHigher projection	15.3 FPvs LAC
Week 18	14.1 FPvs SEA	18.8 FPvs LVHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 3:02 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

20.5 FP24.6 FP

Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.2
Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
23.0
Joe BurrowQB · 98.7% rostered
22.3
Jayden DanielsQB · 95.0% rostered
21.6
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.7% rostered
21.4

What about Matthew Stafford versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Jared Goff15.9projected FP

Matthew Stafford16.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Matthew Stafford16.6projected FP

Trevor Lawrence20.9projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Jayden Daniels21.2projected FP

Matthew Stafford16.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Malik Willis16.6projected FP

Matthew Stafford16.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8