Who should I pick up: Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes II?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Patrick Mahomes II

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Patrick Mahomes II over Justin Herbert: 14.3 versus 12.6 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 12:12 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THE ALTERNATIVE

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs LAR

Stats & schedule ›

12.6FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET

35.1%rostered on ESPN-0.94 pp recent change

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs DEN

Stats & schedule ›

14.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

90.1%rostered on ESPN-0.47 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Patrick Mahomes II is the stronger immediate points option. Justin Herbert is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert projects for 12.6 Standard points against LAR this week. His recent scoring average is 9.5 FP. He is rostered in 35.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.94 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 12.6 FP
ESPN: 10.9 FP
Sleeper: 12.7 FP
FantasyPros: 14.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 11.3 FP
Workload: 11.0 FP
Monte Carlo: 10.7 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 4.5–17.3 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 14.3 Standard points against DEN this week. His recent scoring average is 8.2 FP. He is rostered in 90.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.47 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.3 FP
ESPN: 14.2 FP
Sleeper: 16.4 FP
FantasyPros: 15.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.5 FP
Workload: 14.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · conditional on availability · central 80%: 5.9–22.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET / Oct 30, 10:30 AM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Justin Herbert	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	39.1 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	46.0 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	143.6 FP11/11 scheduled games projected	178.8 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	50.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	65.0 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Justin Herbert	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 8	12.6 FPvs LAR	14.3 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 9	13.5 FPvs HOU	16.5 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	13.0 FPvs BAL	15.2 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	13.8 FPvs NYJ	19.8 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	13.1 FPvs NE	17.8 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	11.9 FPvs TB	14.6 FPvs LARHigher projection
Week 14	15.6 FPvs LV	15.7 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 15	12.4 FPvs SF	15.8 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 16	15.1 FPvs MIA	15.3 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 17	11.1 FPvs KC	15.1 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 18	11.3 FPvs DEN	18.7 FPvs LVHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:32 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

20.5 FP24.6 FP

Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.3
Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
23.0
Joe BurrowQB · 98.7% rostered
22.3
Jayden DanielsQB · 95.0% rostered
21.6
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.7% rostered
21.5

What about Patrick Mahomes II versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Jayden Daniels21.2projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Aaron Rodgers15.0projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Michael Penix Jr.14.6projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8