Who should I pick up: Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes II?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Josh Allen

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Josh Allen over Patrick Mahomes II: 24.6 versus 14.3 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 12:49 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Josh Allen

QB · BUF · vs BAL

Stats & schedule ›

24.6FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

99.9%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

THE ALTERNATIVE

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs DEN

Stats & schedule ›

14.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

90.1%rostered on ESPN-0.42 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Josh Allen is the stronger immediate points option. Patrick Mahomes II is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Josh Allen

Josh Allen projects for 24.6 Standard points against BAL this week. His recent scoring average is 24.4 FP. He is rostered in 99.9% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 24.6 FP
ESPN: 23.7 FP
Sleeper: 24.1 FP
FantasyPros: 24.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 24.2 FP
Workload: 21.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 21.4 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 8.6–34.5 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 14.3 Standard points against DEN this week. His recent scoring average is 8.2 FP. He is rostered in 90.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.42 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.3 FP
ESPN: 14.2 FP
Sleeper: 16.4 FP
FantasyPros: 15.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.5 FP
Workload: 14.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · conditional on availability · central 80%: 5.9–22.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 12:30 PM ET / Oct 30, 12:30 PM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Josh Allen	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	67.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	46.0 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	258.7 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected	178.8 FP11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	98.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	65.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Josh Allen	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 8	24.6 FPvs BALHigher projection	14.3 FPvs DEN
Week 9	18.4 FPvs MINHigher projection	16.5 FPvs NYJ
Week 10	24.2 FPvs NYJHigher projection	15.2 FPvs ATL
Week 11	27.1 FPvs MIAHigher projection	19.8 FPvs ARI
Week 12	20.8 FPvs KCHigher projection	17.8 FPvs BUF
Week 13	23.4 FPvs NEHigher projection	14.6 FPvs LAR
Week 14	21.9 FPvs GBHigher projection	15.7 FPvs CIN
Week 15	25.1 FPvs CHIHigher projection	15.8 FPvs NE
Week 16	21.8 FPvs DENHigher projection	15.3 FPvs SF
Week 17	26.6 FPvs MIAHigher projection	15.1 FPvs LAC
Week 18	24.8 FPvs NYJHigher projection	18.7 FPvs LV

Outlook updated Oct 30, 1:03 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

20.5 FP24.6 FP

Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.3
Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
23.0
Joe BurrowQB · 98.7% rostered
22.3
Jayden DanielsQB · 95.0% rostered
21.6
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.7% rostered
21.5

What about Josh Allen versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Drake Maye24.2projected FP

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Sam Darnold15.2projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Jared Goff15.9projected FP

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Lamar Jackson22.4projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8