Who should I pick up: Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes II?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Patrick Mahomes II

If both are available and you need Week 8 points, pick up Patrick Mahomes II over Bo Nix: 14.3 versus 13.0 projected FP. A longer-term hold can be a different decision; compare the outlook below before choosing who to drop.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:05 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THE ALTERNATIVE

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · vs KC

Stats & schedule ›

13.0FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

56.6%rostered on ESPN-0.69 pp recent change

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs DEN

Stats & schedule ›

14.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

90.1%rostered on ESPN-0.41 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Patrick Mahomes II is the stronger immediate points option. Bo Nix is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a QB vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Bo Nix

Bo Nix projects for 13.0 Standard points against KC this week. His recent scoring average is 12.9 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 7.5%. He is rostered in 56.6% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.69 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 13.0 FP
ESPN: 13.8 FP
Sleeper: 13.6 FP
FantasyPros: 14.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 13.3 FP
Workload: 12.6 FP
Monte Carlo: 12.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 5.3–20.6 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 14.3 Standard points against DEN this week. His recent scoring average is 8.2 FP. He is rostered in 90.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.41 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.3 FP
ESPN: 14.2 FP
Sleeper: 16.4 FP
FantasyPros: 15.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.5 FP
Workload: 14.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · conditional on availability · central 80%: 5.9–22.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 1:30 PM ET / Oct 30, 1:30 PM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Bo Nix	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	27.4 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	46.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	158.6 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	180.1 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	65.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	65.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Bo Nix	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 8	13.0 FPvs KC	14.3 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 9	14.4 FPvs CAR	16.6 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	BYE	15.3 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	18.6 FPvs LV	20.0 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	13.3 FPvs PIT	17.9 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	18.1 FPvs MIAHigher projection	14.7 FPvs LAR
Week 14	15.8 FPvs NYJ	15.9 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 15	18.2 FPvs LVHigher projection	15.9 FPvs NE
Week 16	17.8 FPvs BUFHigher projection	15.4 FPvs SF
Week 17	14.7 FPvs NE	15.3 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 18	14.8 FPvs LAC	18.8 FPvs LVHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:20 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

20.5 FP24.6 FP

Drake MayeQB · 98.9% rostered
23.2
Josh AllenQB · 99.9% rostered
23.0
Joe BurrowQB · 98.7% rostered
22.3
Jayden DanielsQB · 95.0% rostered
21.6
Lamar JacksonQB · 98.7% rostered
21.4

What about Patrick Mahomes II versus these pickups?

QB · Week 8

Jayden Daniels21.2projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Josh Allen24.6projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Aaron Rodgers15.0projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗QB · Week 8

Michael Penix Jr.14.6projected FP

Patrick Mahomes II14.3projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More QB pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

QB · Week 8